US non-farm payrolls just the appetizer

The main focus of the market will be the US employment report later today, but this is largely just the beginning of the outlook for the Federal Reserve. Of course, labor market conditions are critical to solidifying the odd nod from the Fed, but the bottom line is still the inflation numbers, and we won’t get that until next week with CPI data. We’re still at the point where the non-farm payroll manual says quite bluntly that bad news is good news; on the contrary A later warm report supports Powell’s blunt remarks this week, while a softer report rules it out. The Dollar is weaker so far today and remains on the softer side as stocks move higher as the data approaches. In part, one could argue that the market is hoping that we are headed for a reopening of trade with China, but in part, this also looks like a return to the post-Fed reaction. Anyway, the work report due later dictates proceedings before the weekend, so let’s see what it has to offer later today.

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